Momentum Swinging to Dodgers Side as Cardinals Fail to Close Out Series

The St. Louis Cardinals have a problem.  It’s a bit of a crisis really.  I'd classify it as a crisis of confidence and if Friday goes according to pattern, by then they might be in absolute panic mode.   

For four consecutive games in two consecutive years, they have failed to close out the National League Championship Series and make it to the World Series while on the verge winning the pennant.  Ahead three games to one against the San Francisco Giants last season, the Cardinals couldn’t manage to win one more and advance to the fall classic.  In three opportunities, they failed.  In three opportunities they got schellacked by scores of 5-0, 6-1 and 9-0.  

Joe Kelly started for St. Louis in game 5 today.  He went 5 innings and allowed four runs, taking the loss.  (photo by Richard Mackson/USA Today Sports)

So today, again in a potential close out game and ahead three games to one, the Dodgers jumped ahead of the Cardinals 6-2 (eventually winning 6-4),  and St. Louis must have had that sinking feeling that the pennant might be slipping away from them again.  How could they not?  This puts the Dodgers in a position that they probably weren’t aware of, that being in a superior mental state heading in to the final two games in St. Louis.

The Cardinals have to be aware that they have to beat the best starting pitcher in the game, who will be of the mindset that he’ll be pitching the most important game in his life.  That can’t be a feeling of confidence for them.  They’re 0-4 in these pennant clinching games now, and a loss to Kershaw would make them 0-5.  I don’t know about you, but if I was sitting in their position, my confidence would be quite shaken by the time game seven rolls around.

The Dodgers, decimated by injury after injury, still may find themselves in an advantageous position on Friday.  That is quite amazing to consider as Hanley Ramirez and Andre Ethier are playing at about 20%.  Matt Kemp is out for the season.  That’s over 50% of the thumpers in the lineup, but guys like Adrian Gonzalez, A.J. Ellis, Juan Uribe, Yasiel Puig  and Carl Crawford are picking up the slack.  Even with the absenteeism in the offensive end (caused by injury), the team is within two games of the World Series.

Adrian Gonzalez hit two homers in today's 6-4 Dodger win over the Cardinals in game five of the NLCS.  (Photo by Richard Mackson.USA Today Sports)

Meanwhile, you’ve got a Cardinals team that has not hit well in this series and after Kershaw, they face the prospect of going against a dreaded left hander, and one that has had their number in the two games he has faced them so far.  

So the numbers are stacked against the Dodgers, as historical data shows that teams up 3 to 1 are winners of a seven game series well over 90% of the time, but this deficit may not be as deep as many think.  Baseball is a game of trends and the momentum has shifted towards the Dodgers here.  They need to go into St. Louis in the mindset that they’ll put a few runs up on the board and then they can allow their ace to do his magic.  If they are able to give moderate run support to both their starters, the World Series may be waiting for them.

Well, At Least the Starting Pitching Is Lined Up...

The second guessers are having a field day following the Dodgers 4-2 loss to St. Louis in game four of the NLCS.  There are many that believe that Zack Greinke should have been given the ball and in retrospect, he probably should have started. What's done is done though.  Tip your cap to the Cardinals who's number four starter out pitched our number four guy.

Matt Holliday's two run blast turned out to be the decider.  (photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports)

One thing that few are mentioning though is that if Greinke had started, both Greinke and Kershaw would have been pitching on 3 days rest. With Kershaw, actually having to go after 2 1/2 days because tomorrow’s game is a 1:00 PM start time.

So now the Dodgers have their two aces going back to back with adequate rest.  That’s actually pretty good news.  Both can be expected to go close to the distance.  This won't be a game where the likes of Withrow, Marmol, Howell and Belisario will toe the rubber.  It's going to be Greinke, Wilson and Jansen.  If the Dodger prevail, it'll be Kershaw, Wilson and Jansen two days later.  And if the Dodgers fortunes send them to a game seven, there won't be anybody on the pitching staff that isn't available for the finale.

Hanley Ramirez’ broken rib has debilitated him to the point that he can’t go.  That’s the bad news and for a Dodger offense that has been struggling, it's incredibly bad news, but the championship teams overcome injuries and once again the Dodgers will have to prove they can do so. 

I noticed a few tweets from Dodger fans that suggested that the Dodgers pitch Kershaw tomorrow but that would be a bad decision.  First, because Greinke is lights out at home and second, because Kershaw on 2 1/2 days rest isn't something that should be considered.

You go with what you’ve got scheduled.  Greinke - Kershaw - Ryu.  If the Dodgers somehow stretch this thing to seven games, we’ll all be thanking our lucky stars.   We thought that they could win games one and two because Greinke and Kershaw would be pitching.  I feel even more confident this time around because at least one game is at home.

The character of this team will be tested as it never has been tested before.  We saw this same scenario play out in 2008 and 2009 in the NLCS against Philadelphia.  Those Dodger teams gave up when down three games to one.  It remains to be seen if this team can make history and be the first Dodger club to come back from a three to one deficit.

They’ll have to do it with Nick Punto at shortstop, (or maybe even Michael Young).  They'll have to show that they can hit Joe Kelly and then Michael Wacha.  It remains to be seen what kind of lineup card Mattingly will hand to the home plate ump when game time arrives.  Tomorrow’s game will be one I have to miss because like so many, work will be calling.  It’ll be like the old days, sneaking a transistor radio into class.  I actually kind of look forward to that.  Watching these games has been too much for the ticker.

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Quick story:
Game three, 1977 NLCS against the Phillies.  I listened to that amazing Dodger comeback victory unfold when they scored three ninth innings runs as I walked home from school.  It was a 3 mile trek to my home and I’ll never forget the exact spot I was at when Manny Mota scored on that Davey Lopes smash that was a bang-bang play at first base.  Jerry Doggett was calling the action at the time and it wasn’t until later that I saw the replay and saw how close the play was.  But there I was, with a plastic “Snoopy” radio glued to my ear, getting the images through the magic of of baseball audio described by a great announcer.  I jumped in joy on a street corner that will always be a special spot for me because of that moment.  Baseball can be so great.

Hopefully the images that Vin, Charlie and Rick describe tomorrow will be less stressful and a Dodger blowout win ensues.  We need one of those.  It’s been a while.  The heart can only take so much.

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Dare I say it?  The Dancing "Rally Bear" was ejected from the Stadium yesterday.  Is it possible that a "Curse of the Dancing Rally Bear" is in affect?

Losing Cardinals A Bit Over-Sensitive

Baseball players are a sensitive lot.  The Dodgers just won an emotional game and there were some on field celebrations on the way to their 3-0 victory.  The team had just completed 22 innings of scoreless baseball and were on the verge of setting infamous 
records for offensive futility in post season play.  So with that backdrop, they were bound to get excited at the mere hint of a change in their luck.  This was a team left for dead that suddenly had life.

The Dodgers took a 2-0 lead in the fourth inning tonight in a series where two runs might as well be five.  The pitching is that good with these teams.

Yasiel Puig celebrates after tripling in a run in the 4th inning. (AP Photo)

So when Cardinals players express protestations over the brief celebrations of Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig, it makes one wonder if these guys are may be a little oversensitve.  Can’t a player show some emotion?

“I saw Adrian (Gonzalez) doing some Mickey Mouse stuff at second,” said Adam Wainwright while talking about the first RBI a Dodger player had tallied since the second inning on Friday.  

“When you do those things, you get attention,  You don’t want to wake up anybody,” said Carlos Beltran regarding Puig’s mild celebration when he tripled after A Gon’s double.

For being major league veterans with many years standing, you’d think that Beltran and Wainwright could keep their comments to themselves.  Maybe they should follow the example of their manager Mike Matheny who when asked about Puig’s celebration, he refused to take the bait.  

“He’s a good player.” he said about Puig.  Nothing derogatory came from his lips regarding a perception that he believed that he overdid it.  Maybe he thinks his team got showed up, but that’s for something in-house with his team.

I guess we'll see tomorrow if they seriously took umbrage to the celebrations.  Who knows?  Maybe some high and tight pitches will be the result.  Considering the celebratory antics Cardinal pitchers were doing in St. Louis after some key strikeouts (by Kelly and Wacha), perhaps the Cards should back off a bit.  Or even better, Wainwright might want to concentrate on getting players like Gonzalez out if he doesn't want to see him celebrate after getting a key hit.

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Some facts about this series:

The Cardinals are now hitting .134, (13 for 93) in the series.  They have three extra-base hits in the series and no home runs.  The Dodger pitching has completely shut down the team with the best offensive numbers in the league.  With the possibility of Greinke and Kershaw pitching the next two games, the Cardinals really have their hands full of they expect to turn their offense around.  This game three Dodger victory could turn out to  truly be a turning point in this series.

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Bullet Points on a Day of Rest from the NLCS

After spending a good portion of the day prepping a positive piece that would outline that the Dodgers are far from eliminated from the race, an alert arrived and I read another blogger’s piece that pretty much touched on every point I had.  So....Since I don’t want to be accused of lifting someone else’s ideas, it was back to the drawing board and starting over from scratch.    Anyway, here it goes.

Several bullet points:

• A report from Eric Stephen at TrueBlueLA states that Hanley Ramirez is still unable to swing a bat and he was sent to get an CT scan of his ailing rub section that was hit by a Joe Kelly fastball last Friday.  The scan was received this morning and as of this writing, there is no report on the results.  That doesn’t sound too good to me.  Had everything been fine, what damage would have been done in announcing that by now.  I’m just speculating now, but I believe that Ramirez may be out of tomorrow’s action.  It is reported that had the Dodgers played a game today, Hanley wouldn’t have been able to go.

(photo by Jon SooHoo/LA Dodgers courtesy of Dodgersphotog.mlblogscom)

• St. Louis’ ace Adam Wainwright will hasn’t got stellar numbers at Dodger Stadium.  In six career starts at Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have a slash line of .270BA/.354 OBP/ .468 SLG/.8234 OPS with an ERA over 5 runs.  Those are pretty good offensive numbers for the Dodgers when considered they have been against a top of the line starting pitcher.  But Wainwright is capable of going far in games at Dodger Stadium and though his team lost to them in the NLDS here in 2009, it wasn’t because Wainwright pitched badly.  On that night he went 8 innings and tossed a three hitter giving up one run only to watch his bullpen cough up the win when James Loney hit that infamous line drives into Holliday’s privates.  Yes, Wainwright was the guy complaining about the white towels in the stands, which is a rather interesting recollection due to the fact that Cardinal fans were waving them through games one and two in this series. 

• Tomorrow’s home plate umpire will be Mike Everitt.  Wainwright loves pitching in games that this guy calls.  In three starts over his career, with Everitt behind the plate Wainwright is 2-0 with a 0.40 ERA.  Over 22 IP he has allowed 8 hits and one ER.  The opposition OPS are at a .346 level.  Sure, it’s a small sample size, but certainly not encouraging for a Dodger team attempting to avoid an 0-3 deficit.  Hyun-Jin Ryu has never pitched a game that Everitt has called behind the plate. 

• I just noticed that Wainwright is from Brunswick, Georgia and graduated from Glynn Academy High School there.  I personally know the area well, having completed my job training within five miles of the place and returning many times since.  It’s also the High School of NBA first round pick and former Laker Kwame Brown.  Since they are about 9 months  apart in age,  their sports careers mirrored each other as Wainwright and Brown were basketball teammates on an undefeated middle school team.  When Brown was the first pick in the NBA draft in 2001, Wainwright was no slouch as the 29th pick overall in the 1st round of the 2000 draft.  Quite a year for Glynn Academy High School in the athletic front.

• Dodger fans have the opportunity to leave an impact on this series and provide that “10th man" home field advantage affect.  With so many breaks going against them in games one and two in St. Louis, here’s hoping that a loud and boisterous crowd will impact the ball club in a positive manner.  Not much has gone their way this far and it’s time for the tide to turn in their favor.

• Being down 0-2 isn’t a lead that can’t be overcome, especially with three consecutive home games.  Championship teams have their bumps in the road, and the Dodgers have definitely had their share of them this season.  Ask yourself this question though:  Was it realistic to expect the team to march through post-season without some rough patches on the way?  Even those championship Dodger teams in ’88 and especially ’81 had some dark moments where it looked like the season was over.  Perhaps this point of the post-season will be a rallying point.

• The Dodgers aren’t hitting, but they are actually hitting better than St. Louis in the series.  That’s a sign that luck will tilt in their favor.  Unfortunately, they have fallen short in the “clutch hits” department, going 1 for 16 with runners in scoring position.  That has to change if they are going to win this series.

• Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will need to provide some clutch hitting if the Dodgers are to win this series.  It isn’t realistic to expect anything out of Hanley Ramirez or Andre Ethier at this point.  Look for Mark Ellis and/or A.J. Ellis to have a clutch hit or two.

• Don Mattingly has to know that his job is really on the line now.  Has he finally learned his lesson and will he stop bunting in situations that will force the opposition to take the bat out of the hands of his largest offensive threat?  I sort of doubt that.  After the Uribe homer that won the NLDS, he bunted again in this series, costing the Dodgers their best bat in the lineup (Ramirez) and game one in the process.  The man is stubborn and the Dodgers will have to overcome his foibles to win the series.

• The Dodgers, with the best record in the league as a road team, can win at St. Louis following the three games in L.A..  A return to the “Gateway” city with a winning result would be sweet as the Dodgers can silence the “greatest fans of baseball.”   Sorry, but after viewing a number of profane tweets from those fans, I have a hard time believing their claim of being such a classy bunch.

(photo by Jon SooHoo/LA Dodgers courtesy of Dodgersphotog.mlblogscom)

• If Ricky Nolasco is to make an appearance in this series, but it’ll probably have to be in relief along the line somewhere.   Hopefully it’ll be in a mop-up relief role with the Dodgers far ahead in order to conserve the arm of Greinke or Kershaw who may be needed on short rest for another start.   I believe it’ll be Greinke in Game 4 on Tuesday and Kershaw in game 5 on Wednesday.  Perhaps Nolasco starts on Friday in game 6, but probably not as Ryu would be set up to go that date on regular rest.  I’m assuming that if there is a game seven, it’ll be Greinke in the finale.

Backs Against The Wall, Once Again We'll See What The 2013 Dodgers Are Made Of

After losing two in St. Louis with both staff aces taking the mound, the Dodgers have dug themselves into what some might believe is an insurmountable hole.  In a 24 hour period the they went from a highest of highs to perhaps their low morale point on the season.  Not only is the offense AWOL, but now their most potent offensive threat isn’t in the lineup and their amazing rookie sensation went 0-10 with six strikeouts, many in crucial at bats that could have turned two defeats into two victories.

(photo by Jon SooHoo/L.A. Dodgers)

So let’s look at the positive:

They could be the Giants, or the Angels or even the Braves for that matter that would love to be in their position.  Being down 2-0 isn’t unsurmountable and four Dodger teams in post-season history have come back from 0-2 deficits to win series.  (The ’81 Dodgers actually did it twice).  And...

The pitching has been fantastic, both starting and relief.  Additionally, Kershaw threw just 72 pitches, which means he’ll probably be seriously considered to come back and pitch earlier than expected.  And...

Umm, Yeah.  I got nothing else.  Sorry.

Game three will be crucial as St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright gets the nod against Hyun-jin Ryu who was awful in his only post season outing last week.  If the Dodgers do manage to win that game, there will have to be discussion about either bringing back Greinke on three days rest or pitching Ricky Nolasco, who hasn’t been in a game since getting rocked by Colorado on September 29th.

(photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports)

So in this miracle comeback season the Dodgers will once again have to pull out another rabbit out of the hat.  Just as everything looks to be down and their backs are completely against the wall, it's gut-check time again.  Can Puig return to form?  Will Hanley recover enough to return to the lineup?  Will Ethier's ankle injury be too much to overcome?  Can Ryu and Nolasco find their old magic and come through in the pressure of a world-wide stage and pennant determining championship series?  There are a lot of questions that need to be answered.

One last thing.  Post game notes report that Hanley Ramirez’ x-rays came back negative.   Which immediately brought back memories of this George Costanza scene in a Seinfeld episode.  Hey, we might as well laugh at something today.

Painful Loss, Get 'Em Tomorrow

(photo by Steve Rovak/USA Today Sports)

This is a painful post, there's no other way to say it.  The NLCS game one 3-2 loss to St. Louis in 13 innings is about has difficult to take as any heartbreaking loss I've ever experienced watching this team. In the interest of time, provided below are bullet points about tonight's game.

Where to start?

Mattingly 

I guess he didn't want his best hitter to swing the bat.  How he could bunt Crawford to second, setting up the open base in the 12th inning.  The intentional walk to Ramirez was about as predictable as the sun rising in the East wash day.  The twittersphere went ballistic when it happened.  The only thing more predictable than Matheny ordering the intentional walk there was the probability that Michael Young would ground into a double play following the walk.

Removing Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch hitter that he wasn't going to run wasn't too bright either.  The loss of AGon from the lineup came back to bite Mattingly twice later when Michael Young batted in crucial situations, both resulting in double plays.

Mark Ellis and the attempt to score on the fly ball in the 10th

I was okay with the chance simply because Beltran had to make a perfect play.  He executed.  Yes, Molina didn't apply the tag, but who ever calls that?  That out at the plate was painful, but a risk worth taking.  Sometimes things don't work out.

(photo by AL Tuielmans/USA Today Sports)

Greinke

What a pitcher!  What a big game pitcher!  He's an ace, plain and simple.  He had pinpoint control and was just lights out.  He deserved a win, but the offense let him down.  Do the Dodgers possibly pitch him on short rest in game 4?  They need to consider it.  Poor Ricky Nolasco may never pitch in a game this post-season.

Ethier

He clearly isn't anywhere near 100%.  The Beltran 2-run double in the third was a real tough play, but a healthy Ethier probably makes it.  It'll be interesting to see how he recovers and if he can possibly play tomorrow, a day game after a night game that went 13 innings.

(Photo by Rob Grabowski/USA Today Sports)

Belisario and Howell

I admit it.  I thought it was crazy to bring him in to start an inning when I thought they should go with Jansen early, but he proved himself and had nasty stuff to retire the side in order.  Kudos also to JP Howell for getting through the tandem of Beltran, Holliday, Adams and Molina in his inning of work.  Very clutch.

Puig

A tough night for the rookie right fielder who failed with the bat but shined on the defensive end.  That running catch and double play assist to first base was highlight reel stuff.  Puig will be ok and he'll get his knocks this series.  He always seems to come back string after a poor offensive game.

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Holy Cow! Game two starts in 12 hours and thrity minutes.  Best to get some sleep fellas.  Kershaw will need a run or two.

Dodgers - Probably the Most Popular Choice of the Remaining World Series Contenders

With four teams remaining in the running for the World Series, believe it or not, he Dodgers may be the team that most of the nation is pulling for.  That is almost unfathomable to imagine as the Dodgers were always one of those teams that the opponent has always loved to hate, but recent history has changed that.  Additionally, the other three remaining teams in the race have had a lot of success in recent history.

St. Louis, Detroit and Boston  have made appearances in the fall classic at least twice in the past decade.  The Dodgers with their two NLCS appearances in ’08 and ’09 didn’t even come close to a World Series birth as the Phillies dominated them in each of those series.

After a 25 year absence from the World Series, it is the Dodgers that actually would be the interesting team to see there.  First of all, since they are such a storied franchise with historical impact that hasn’t been to the big dance since grainy footage of it was filmed.   Additionally, there's a lot of star power and interest in the Dodger lineup that many want to see.  The Dodgers are the team that will make this series more interesting for the average fan across the country, regardless of their record setting payroll.

Certainly it isn't the Cardinals that fans want to see.  No offense to that great franchise, but they have been in this position a lot lately.  A Cardinals-Tigers series would be 2007 and 1968 all over again.  Been there, done that.  A Cardinals-Red Sox series?  Same thing, 2004 an 1967.  There isn’t the mystique there as there would be with the other two possible matchups.

A Dodgers-Tigers Series would be quite an interesting spectacle.  Such potentially great pitching matchups with Scherzer,Kershaw, Verlander,Greinke, Ryu, and Sanchez are all intriguing.   The Tigers would definitely have a message to send that their World Series dud last year against the Giants was a fluke.  The Dodgers on the other hand are definitely  hungry to win a title again and shut up the detractors.  This would be a good show.  

The Classic of all Fall Classics

(Photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP)

Imagine a Dodgers-Red Sox Fall Classic, what a historical World Series that would be. 1916 all over again.   That will be a memorable series from the get go.  So many side stories, i.e. Lakers/Celtics history and fierce rivalry and Magic being a minority owner of the team.  Then there’s the blockbuster deal made last year that helped both clubs to the point that they’re both facing each other in the championship the next season.  It would be a World Series for the ages and count on it being a lot more interesting series than the three game set at Dodger Stadium back in August.

With apologies to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who seemed to be a national favorite due to their underdog status.  Any World Series with the Pirates was not desirable to network television that looks at the ratings factor that the World Series brings.  Such a series between Boston and Los Angeles would be the dream of Fox Sports Television executives.  Those markets would probably create record setting TV ratings.

The Dodgers are in the second largest media market in the country.  The Red Sox have the 7th largest amount of TV homes, (that are more baseball crazy that probably any other market in the nation).  The result will be the best World Series television ratings since the days the Dodgers and Yankees battled in ‘1977, 1978 and 1981.  (* according to baseballalmanac.com, the highest rated World Series in baseball history for television was the 1981 series, and next highest was 1978).

Last year’s Tigers-Giants series was the lowest rated in the past 40 years and baseball needs this rebound of interest.  A Dodgers-Red Sox series will infuse that energy in the fan base on a national basis.  It is the Dodgers that average the highest road attendance in the game and the Red Sox aren’t far behind (2nd in the A.L behind the Yankees).  These two teams have fans all over the country and would generate a lot of interest in all sectors.  Add the star power that each franchise takes to the fall classic.  Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, Yasiel Puig, Dustin Pedroia and the Clay’s (Bucholtz and Kershaw).  There’s a lot of intrigue  that is generated with such names.  Each venue, Fenway and Dodger Stadium is an amazing ballpark with a great atmosphere.

There’s another series to be played, and we are a long way from it happening, but I think its safe to say that most baseball fans following the game are rooting for the Dodgers to make it to the big dance.  As polite and classy as the Cardinal fan base is, fans want to see something new in the fall classic.  The Dodgers will bring that.  A couple years from now, most will probably be tired of seeing the Dodgers there, but for now, they are an attractive tenant to occupy the World Series.